| SHORT TERM DISCUSSION |
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MOIST AIR REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS EVIDENCED BY SFC
DEWPOINTS OF 45-55 DEGS F. AND GOES SOUNDER ESTIMATING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 0.70 TO 1.00 INCH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AND WEST CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY BETWEEN HIGHWAY 40 AND HIGHWAY 50...AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST. ANTICIPATE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE INCREASING
ACROSS THE N THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT OVERCOME ANY TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO STARTING TO DEVELOP IN SE UT AND SW
CO PER 20Z RADAR IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. MODELS INDICATE SOME
WEAK ENERGY MAY SHEAR NEWD FROM AZ ACROSS THIS AREA LATER TODAY...SO
EXPECT SHOWERS/T-STORM COVERAGE TO CONTINUE INCREASING THERE ALSO.
MAIN STORM THREAT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAIN...AND SECONDARILY HAIL.
STORMS ARE MOVING BUT LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM FLOODING POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL THE PAST
DAY OR TWO OR WHERE STORMS EXHIBIT TRAINING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT AS DISTURBANCES MOVE EAST.
THE UPPER HIGH OVER TX TODAY SHIFTS WESTWARD WHICH SHOULD DISRUPT ANY
FURTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND STORMS OVER NW
MEXICO. BUT...DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT DRYING THIS WEEKEND AS
MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE .50 INCH IN WESTERLY
FLOW SAT AND SUN. ENTRANCE REGION OF 60-70 KT 250 MB UPPER JET MOVES
OVERHEAD AND COULD PROVIDE A BIT BETTER SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE FOR
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WILL GO A FEW DEGS BELOW MOS HIGH TEMPS DUE TO CLOUDS.
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